Report
10 Conflicts to Worry About in 2021
This report reviews 10 conflicts expected to escalate or evolve in 2021 globally.
Our annual special report reviews the past year of data for 10 key conflicts with a look toward trends to watch in the coming months. Access ACLED data directly through the export tool, and find more information about ACLED methodology in our Resource Library.
Conflict levels in 2020 slightly decreased from 2019 in all regions except Africa. Still, many conflicts continued unabated despite the global COVID-19 pandemic, and several took on new dimensions as actors responded to the health crisis. Because the pandemic is a unique development, we expect global conflict levels, locations, and agents to increase significantly in 2021 — ultimately to a higher point than both 2019 and 2020.
Each year, ACLED identifies 10 conflicts or crisis situations around the world that are likely to worsen or evolve in the coming months. Not just hotspots, these 10 cases represent areas where new directions and patterns of violence are becoming clear, where there have been major shifts in conflict dynamics, and where there is a significant risk of conflict diffusion. This year’s report reviews key trends in Ethiopia; India and Pakistan; Myanmar; Haiti; Belarus; Colombia; Armenia and Azerbaijan; Yemen; Mozambique; and the Sahel. Ethiopia, Yemen, and the Sahel were previously highlighted in our 2020 series, and their re-inclusion here underscores how these conflicts have changed substantially in the preceding year, and how new risks continue to emerge.
All 10 conflicts are expected to evolve in 2021. They do not fit the standard narratives of state failure, exclusive politics, grievances, or resource competition. Each is shaped by the decisions governments have made in order to exert or retract their control and strength, as well as the ramifications, opposition, and vulnerabilities exposed by those decisions. While many world leaders stole the spotlight with political antics and by inflaming dangerous domestic fault lines, state actors in these 10 conflicts exploited global distractions to repress, attack, and subjugate their citizens. Others took advantage of rising radicalism and populism to sustain their leadership, ultimately leading to scapegoating and further violence. As a result, violent and brutal governance is on the rise in many of these countries, while multiple powers compete for control in others.
Each case also illustrates the wide range of different political violence patterns currently affecting states: Haiti’s gangs have arisen in a context of highly politicized ‘law and order’ campaigns; the Sahel’s jihadi threat is reinforced by pastoralist populism and poor international coordination; Mozambique’s conflict was initially viewed by its government as a local revolt, but reached unprecedented levels of sophistication in 2020. Russian interests are a growing and determining factor in Belarus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan; and the violent indirect effects of incomplete peace agreements are felt in Yemen and Colombia.
2020 was a sobering year, and one in which politics has failed the vast majority around the world. In 2021, we may be forced to reap what has been sown: the coming year is likely to be a dangerous and violent period leading to more uncertainty and less peace, especially for the countries embroiled in these 10 conflicts.
In our mid-year update to this special report, we will revisit these conflicts to assess our analysis and determine if our expectations were accurate.
10 Conflicts to Worry About in 2021
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Ethiopia
At risk of multiplying conflicts stretching the capacity of the state
With national elections scheduled for 5 June 2021, and the country gripped by several co-occurring conflicts, Ethiopia is headed towards a tumultuous year.</span></p>
The conflict in Ethiopia between the federal government and the former administration of the northern Tigray region, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), has dominated headlines since clashes began in early November 2020. Four weeks of intense fighting resulted in what appeared to be a decisive victory for the federal government, but recent information suggests that scattered local challenges and a massive humanitarian emergency is creating a costly occupation. Pockets of resistance still exist and some clashes continue to occur, and some combination of federal government troops, Eritrean soldiers and Amhara regional militias claim to have successfully established control over all major towns in the region. Given the disjointed and distorted reporting and planning of this conflict, questions are being asked by international and national actors alike about conflict patterns more broadly in Ethiopia, and how secure the state is going into 2021.</span></p><p>In addition to a costly occupation and the task of replacing the political leadership of the Tigray region, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration faces the daunting task of establishing security in many areas of the country. Several conflicts across the state are less acknowledged in the international media, but each of these threats are associated with dire outcomes, including thousands of deaths, millions of displacements, and variable levels of disruptions to economic and political development. Economically, investment has slowed as the future of the country is uncertain and large-scale farms and development projects have been the subjects of attacks by rioting groups. Political development has likewise been curtailed through the repression of opposition movements, marking a regression since Abiy was first hailed for opening political space at the beginning of his tenure. Several conflicts are simultaneously occurring in Konso, West and Kelem Wollega, Gujji, Tigray, the Oromo/Somali border area, and the Sudan border region. Further reading available here.
India & Pakistan
At risk of increased cross-border violence in Kashmir
2020 was another tumultuous year for India and Pakistan as relations plummeted amid increased clashes along the disputed Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) border. The spike in fighting made 2020 the most violent year for conflict between India and Pakistan since the beginning of ACLED coverage in 2016. India focused on deflecting opportunities for negotiation and tightening control of Kashmir. 1 India and Pakistan exchanged harsh rhetoric and accusations. In December 2020, India and Pakistani forces engaged in the most lethal border clash since 1999, threatening a spiral of escalatory violence. Further reading available here.
Myanmar
At risk of dormant conflicts reigniting
Following the general elections on 8 November 2020 in Myanmar, fighting in Rakhine state and southern Chin state came to a sudden halt. The United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA), an ethnic Rakhine group fighting for greater autonomy, announced a unilateral ceasefire, which the military then reciprocated. Subsequent meetings have since been held to discuss the possibility of a bilateral ceasefire between the groups. The current military coup underway in Myanmar will likely derail such talks. Prior to the current cessation of fighting in Rakhine state and Chin state’s Paletwa township, conflict in the region had been on the rise. Most notably, the military’s use of airstrikes and shelling both during combat and in civilian areas had been increasing relative to 2019. Many civilians have been injured and killed during the conflict over the past two years. While fighting has temporarily stopped, no stable solution to the conflict has been achieved. Further reading available here.
Haiti
High risk of increased gang violence amid rising authoritarianism
Amid a worsening political crisis, the security situation in Haiti has continued to deteriorate as levels of gang violence have increased. Throughout 2020, violence against civilians in the country rose by nearly 35% compared to 2019. Violence has been concentrated mostly in the impoverished neighborhoods of Port-au-Prince, which are divided and controlled by local gang lords. The rise of gang violence is likely connected to the end of President Jovenel Moise’s constitutional mandate on 7 February 2021 and to the upcoming elections scheduled for September 2021. Political elites in power in Haiti have long relied on gangs to terrorize the population and suppress opposition votes through intimidation and the use of force against residents of marginalized neighborhoods in the capital — hotbeds of Haiti’s political opposition. Further reading available here.
Footnotes
- 1
While ACLED coverage of India spans back to 2016, and is therefore the date used here, ACLED coverage of Pakistan extends back to 2010.
