The first No Kings protests were massive. Will Saturday’s No Kings II reach the same heights? — Expert comment

The No Kings II demonstrations planned for this Saturday, 18 October, hope to regain the momentum of anti-Trump sentiment expressed on 14 June.

Kieran Doyle, North America Research Manager with ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data), explains:

 The first No Kings day of action mobilized the most demonstrations in any single day in our US dataset, which dates to the beginning of 2020 and includes the Black Lives Matter protests of that year. ACLED confirmed more than 1,600 No Kings demonstrations, several counting demonstrators in their tens and hundreds of thousands, across all 50 states.”

No Kings is part of a wider pattern of mobilization opposing the Trump administration. Since the beginning of the year, coalitions of dozens of organizations have staged nationwide protests on a single day of action each month to show their opposition to his presidency as well as support for a litany of progressive causes. Though the other days of action have seen various degrees of success (with the April Hands Off protests coming in second for number of demonstrations), none have come close to equaling No Kings, and turnout has declined as the year has gone on.

Whether No Kings II, which currently boasts over 2,000 planned demonstrations on its organizing website, will manage to muster the same turnout as the original No Kings is yet to be seen. However, there are some reasons to expect at minimum a larger turnout than in more recent days of action. The first of these is the name No Kings itself, which captured the public’s imagination and represents opposition to authoritarianism. The second is the highly controversial migration crackdowns which are ongoing across the country — particularly in Illinois, where ICE’s Operation Midway Blitz has seen the largest number of pro-immigration demonstrations in the state in a single month. 

Though ICE operations have continued throughout Trump’s presidency, the scale of Midway Blitz — which has seen over 1,500 arrests, according to the Department of Homeland Security, as well as a series of violent incidents in Chicago — has intensified public outcry. 

The first No Kings gained additional steam from President Donald Trump’s decision to mobilize the National Guard in California in the lead-up to the day of demonstrations. With the Trump administration continuing to seek judicial approval to federalize the Illinois National Guard, it’s possible that a similar pattern may play out here. 

If No Kings II fails to rally demonstrators, it would call into question the organizing strategies behind day of action demonstrations, which have generated large single-day spikes in protest activity alongside weeks of relative calm. A disappointment might push organizers to consider a different approach. 

Note to editors: For more information or to interview Kieran Doyle, please contact the ACLED press office at [email protected]. 

For more information, see ACLED’s US Crisis Monitor. ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) is a global monitor that collects, analyzes, and maps data on conflict and protest. ACLED provides detailed information to help identify, understand, and track patterns and trends in conflict and crisis situations around the world.