Latin America and the Caribbean Overview: February 2025

Colombia: An ELN offensive against ex-FARC dissidents triggers deadly violence in Norte de Santander

On 16 January, the National Liberation Army (ELN) launched an offensive in Norte de Santander against the 33rd front, a dissident faction of the demobilized Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The ELN aimed to consolidate its presence and tighten its grip on illegal revenues in the Catatumbo region bordering Venezuela.¹ As a result of the fighting, at least 52 people were confirmed dead, but the Norte de Santander governor’s office estimated on 19 January that the toll could be as high as 80.² The deceased include fighters but also social leaders, former FARC combatants, and other civilians whom the ELN claimed to be members of, or collaborating with, the 33rd front.³ Targeted attacks on civilians continued until the end of the month, turning January 2025 into the deadliest month in Norte de Santander since ACLED started coverage of Colombia in 2018. The escalation of violence also forced at least 52,000 people to flee their homes, marking the largest displacement caused by a single event since the Ombudsman’s Office started recording displacements in 1997.⁴ 

In response, President Gustavo Petro declared a state of emergency for three months in the Catatumbo region and two municipalities in neighboring Cesar department,⁵ announced a joint military offensive with Venezuela’s government,⁶ and suspended negotiations with the ELN.⁷ January’s events illustrate the challenging path to achieving a sustainable peace agreement with the armed group before the end of Petro’s term.

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Ecuador: Violence mars the country’s electoral campaign

The campaign for Ecuador’s 9 February presidential and legislative elections, which started on 5 January, kicked off with multiple high-profile acts of violence against politicians. On 11 January, Eber Ponce Rosero, the mayor of Arenillas, El Oro province, was assassinated, while Yadira Bayra, a member of parliament for the ruling National Democratic Action party, was kidnapped on 14 January. One year has passed since President Daniel Noboa — who is running for re-election — declared an internal armed conflict on 9 January 2024 in an effort to combat organized groups.⁸ Despite a slight reduction in the country’s homicide rate in 2024,⁹ criminal violence surged again in January, making it the deadliest month since police created an official database on homicides in 2010.¹⁰ Furthermore, violence targeting political figures has been on the increase since 2020, as organized crime groups vying for the control of drug trafficking routes have tried to co-opt local authorities and prevent judicial investigations from making progress.¹¹ The killing of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in August 2023 illustrates the intertwinement of criminal and political interests in the country. But it was in 2024 that the country saw such violence spiral; ACLED records 63 attacks on political figures, the highest number since ACLED started covering the country in 2018. Against this backdrop, candidates have limited their public appearances, are escorted by security guards, and are advised to wear bulletproof vests.¹² Despite these precautions, the latest attacks suggest that the electoral process is not immune to further violence targeting political figures. 

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Haiti: The Viv Ansanm gang alliance expands in Port-au-Prince with an offensive in Kenscoff commune

Between 27 and 28 January, gangs under the Viv Ansanm alliance attacked five communities in Kenscoff commune, leaving at least 30 dead and forcing around 3,290 residents to flee the area.¹³ The attacks occurred even though the government had imposed a curfew in the commune on 24 January and local authorities had sent alerts to police forces following threats by gangs announcing these incursions.¹⁴ In seeking to push back the offensive, police forces killed at least 20 gang members. Kenscoff, a rural area spared from the rampant violence in the past, has become a strategic location for Viv Ansam gangs that seek to enter the neighboring Pétion-Ville commune amid efforts to expand control in peripheral areas in Port-au-Prince.¹⁵ At the beginning of January, police forces supported by officers of the Multinational Security Support Mission had already engaged in clashes with gangs to prevent their advance in Pétion-Ville. The recent incursion drove a spike in the number of reported fatalities in Kenscoff. In one month, fatalities far surpassed the total number that occurred in this commune since 2018, underscoring how severely violence is spreading in the country.

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Jamaica: Police’s killing of a One Order gang leader sparks unrest in Saint Catherine parish

On 22 January, police clashed with the One Order gang during anti-gang operations in Saint Catherine parish, killing its leader, Othneil Lobban, after a car chase in Kingston ended in a crash. Following his death, residents demonstrated in Spanish Town, Saint Catherine, decrying the killing of the gangster, who they described as a community leader.¹⁶ To quell unrest, authorities imposed a state of emergency in four communities surrounding Spanish Town shortly after the incident. However, tensions continued in the following days, as residents clashed with police officers and damaged police vehicles and a store. In response, authorities extended the curfew to several other communities of the parish on 28 January.¹⁷

The One Order gang, which reportedly holds ties with the ruling Jamaica Labor party,¹⁸ controls extortion and drug trafficking activities in Spanish Town but also operates in other communities.¹⁹ The recent police actions in Saint Catherine follow an escalation of gang attacks targeting civilians, including the killing of three people on 8 January, contributing to a 37% increase in violence in the country in January compared to December.

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Mexico: Clashes between security forces and armed groups increase as the government escalates its fight against organized crime

In January, clashes between security forces and armed groups increased by 43% compared to the month prior, reaching its highest number since similar levels were recorded in January 2023. The increase was driven by armed confrontations amid security forces’ operations in Michoacán and Nuevo León states. Notably, on 27 January, members of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel attempted to shoot down an army helicopter during a military operation in Apatzingán, Michoacán. During this and other operations in the surrounding areas, officers defused hundreds of explosive devices, which organized crime groups increasingly use to target rivals and security forces.²⁰ Meanwhile, on 12 January, state police forces in Nuevo León clashed with armed men in Galeana, Linares, and Hualahuises municipalities, leading to the arrest of at least 27 people.²¹ These operations in Nuevo León occurred as part of the joint state and federal security forces operation La Muralla, which was launched in November 2024 in an attempt to fight organized crime in rural areas.²² 

The rise in confrontations between the state and criminal groups comes after President Claudia Sheinbaum’s change in her approach to security, which differs from that of her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s “hugs, not bullets” policy. Sheinbaum’s government has reportedly strengthened direct actions against criminal groups and prioritized intelligence operations to dismantle criminal networks during her first three months in office.²³

Correction | 10 February 2025: The initial version of this report mistakenly stated that Nuevo Laredo was the site of the security operations. The security operations occurred in Nuevo León. The error has been amended.

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Venezuela: Maduro’s third term begins amid protests, repression, and global backlash

On 10 January, Nicolás Maduro was sworn in for a third presidential term despite widespread accusations of electoral fraud following the contested July 2024 election. In the previous days, the government arrested over 50 activists and opposition figures and deployed around 1,400 military officers to discourage public demonstrations.²⁴ Nonetheless, the day before the inauguration, thousands of Venezuelans demonstrated in support of opposition candidate Edmundo González — who is widely believed to be the real winner of the election.²⁵ ACLED records 72 opposition-led protests across 21 of Venezuela’s 23 states in January, a significant increase from the 20 events recorded in December. Opposition leader María Corina Machado appeared in one of these protests before being briefly detained.²⁶ Compared with the post-election mobilization, however, protests in January were much fewer and mostly peaceful. Venezuelans abroad also held over 60 demonstrations in at least 14 countries to reject Maduro’s permanence in power. 

Meanwhile, the new US government seems to have turned former President Joe Biden’s approach to the Venezuelan crisis upside down. After Biden moved to impose new sanctions on Venezuelan officials after Maduro’s inauguration,²⁷ President Trump’s special envoy, Richard Grenell, met with Maduro in Caracas on 31 January. They reportedly brokered a deal whereby Venezuela will accept deportation flights in exchange for a possible normalization in bilateral relations.²⁸

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