Latin America and the Caribbean Overview: October 2024

Argentina: Nationwide demonstrations erupt over university funding cuts

Following initial mobilizations in April, President Javier Milei’s education sector fiscal policy continues to fuel widespread demonstrations. On 2 October, nationwide protests erupted as students and public university teachers rallied against Milei’s veto of a law passed by Congress in September, which aimed to increase public university funding and adjust salaries for education workers. Milei argues that the measure threatens fiscal balance,¹ as Argentina faces inflation nearing 240% and over half the population lives in poverty.² Demonstrators, however, fear budget cuts will worsen education quality, as many institutions already struggle to pay their staff.³ Throughout October, demonstrations persisted as opposition lawmakers failed to overturn the veto.⁴ ACLED records over 300 demonstrations in October — the highest since Milei took office in December 2023 — of which nearly two-thirds involved students and teachers. These largely peaceful protests included strikes, university building takeovers, and roadblocks across most provinces. Tensions between the opposition and President Milei remain high, as political negotiations over the 2025 budget are ongoing and further mobilizations are planned for November. 

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Bolivia: Tension between Arce and Morales rise amid a worsening political crisis

The feud between President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales over their potential presidential bids for the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party intensified in October. Morales accused Arce of orchestrating a shooting targeted at his vehicle on 27 October, and both leaders face allegations of sexual abuse. On 8 October, a woman accused Arce of abuse of power and harassment,⁵ while a prosecutor issued an arrest warrant for Morales on 11 October after he missed a hearing for a rape case that resurfaced after it was dismissed in 2019.⁶ Morales claims these accusations aim to undermine his presidential bid, sparking his supporters to demonstrate and set up roadblocks. This has caused an 81% increase in demonstrations relative to the previous month. Arce claims the roadblocks have caused more than 1.7 billion US dollars in economic losses and worsened fuel and food shortages.⁷ As the government attempted to remove the blockades, demonstrators and state forces clashed in over a dozen cases. Several police officers were injured, including 27 during a clash in Mairana, Santa Cruz, and state forces arrested several demonstrators.⁸ As Morales called for mobilization after the 27 October shooting, concerns remain that the political crisis will persist in the absence of further political dialogue. Since 2018, Bolivia has experienced a year-on-year increase in demonstrations fueled by political instability and infighting within the ruling MAS party. Thus far in 2024, nearly a third of recorded demonstrations have involved MAS supporters as political disputes deepen. 

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Cuba: Extended blackouts drive a surge in demonstrations

In October, repeated blackouts saw dissatisfied Cubans take to the streets across the island in rare protest, marking some of the highest levels of demonstration activity since the damage to energy infrastructure after Hurricane Ian in October 2022. Service delivery protests surged on 20 October as the government struggled to restore power, leaving about 10,000 Cubans without electricity during a 48-hour blackout, which disrupted access to food, water, and garbage collection services. The nearly 20 demonstration events remained peaceful, in spite of the arrests of several demonstrators, and took place in at least nine of the country’s 15 provinces. Fearing large-scale mobilization similar to the anti-government demonstrations in July 2021, as well as smaller-scale protests seen in March and May, President Miguel Díaz-Canel issued warnings against potential acts of vandalism and unrest.⁹ The injunction comes amid a wave of state repression and criminalization of dissent targeting activists and journalists.¹⁰ On 3 October, police detained two journalists of the independent Cubanet outlet a day before the new Social Communication Law — which criminalizes content criticizing state bodies — entered into force.¹¹

The government has attributed the energy crisis to the closure of a coal plant, high electricity demands, US sanctions and embargoes imposed on Cuba, and fuel shortages.¹² In response to dwindling fuel supplies from Venezuela and Russia, Mexico sent a shipment of crude oil to Cuba on 28 October.¹³ However, energy stability remains fragile and could be further threatened by the ongoing hurricane season.

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Haiti: Security forces launch anti-gang operations to curb coordinated attacks in Artibonite and Ouest departments

Armed gangs were responsible for deadly attacks against civilians in Artibonite department, driving a 47% increase in political violence in October compared to the previous month. On 4 October, the Gran Grif gang killed at least 115 people in Pont-Sondé — the deadliest attack in the department since ACLED began coverage in 2018 — allegedly in retaliation for local support to self-defense groups dismantling the gang’s tolls on National Road 1 (NR1).¹⁴ Police forces, sometimes joined by the Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support Mission (MSS), responded with operations targeting Gran Grif and Kokorat San Ras gangs in villages along NR1. Despite police actions, on 29 October, Kokorat San Ras gangsters killed at least 10 residents of L’Estère in another apparent act of retaliation against anti-gang activities.¹⁵

Meanwhile, in Ouest department, police and the MSS intensified anti-gang operations amid a wave of gang attacks across the metropolitan area to assert control over communities. They clashed with the Taliban gang in Arcahaie, Kraze Baryè in Pétion-Ville, and 400 Mawozo in Croix-des-Bouquets. Several gangs operating under Viv Ansanm – a coalition that brings together the main gang factions G-9 and G-Pèp – also launched coordinated attacks on Solino, but security forces struggled to make significant territorial gains, leading to the death of a police officer on 24 October. Gangs further demonstrated their reach by firing on United States embassy vehicles on 21 October and a United Nations-operated helicopter on 24 October. 

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Martinique: Protests against high food prices spread and turn more violent

Demonstrations against high living costs relative to mainland France that were initiated in September escalated in October. Following the deployment of anti-riot police from mainland France on 21 September, members of the Assembly for the Protection of Afro-Caribbean Peoples and Resources (RPPRAC) condemned the move as “colonial repression” and demanded their withdrawal.¹⁶ Rioters set up roadblocks, looted stores, and clashed with police and gendarmes across all Martinique provinces, marking a substantial increase in the spread of unrest. ACLED records over 70 demonstration events in October, more than double compared to September and the highest since coverage began in 2018. Violence also intensified. Dozens of gendarmes were injured in clashes, and a young man was fatally shot outside a looted supermarket in Le Robert on 10 October under unclear circumstances.¹⁷ To curb unrest, local authorities imposed an island-wide curfew on 10 October, later restricting it to the communes of Case-Pilote, Fort-de-France, Lamentin, Saint-Joseph, and Schoelcher on 28 October.¹⁸ Meanwhile, on 16 October, the RPPRAC rejected a proposal from local authorities and food distributors to reduce prices by “20% on average” for 54 products,¹⁹ leaving tensions unresolved and the prospect of further unrest.

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Mexico: President Sheinbaum faces multiple security challenges in her first month in government

On 2 October, President Claudia Sheinbaum took office after being elected in June. The 2024 electoral process saw the highest levels of attacks targeting political figures since ACLED started coverage in 2018, and it continues to be one of the main security challenges for the new government. ACLED records at least 34 such incidents in October alone. Most fatalities are recorded in Guerrero, where unknown gunmen killed and beheaded Alejandro Arcos, mayor of Chilpancingo municipality, a mere six days after he took office. Two of the mayor’s closest collaborators had also been killed before his inauguration. In Chiapas, one of the deadliest states for political figures in October, ACLED records four targeted attacks against political figures, while armed individuals killed a local Catholic priest and known leader who had been denouncing criminal groups in the Altos de Chiapas region.²⁰

The new government also faces escalating violence in Sinaloa driven by the conflict between factions of the Sinaloa cartel. ACLED records more than 130 violent incidents in October, marking a 45% increase compared to the already high levels recorded in September. Sheinbaum claimed that security forces had been reinforced to carry out intelligence and security operations,²¹ but demanded the US government clarify the circumstances of the arrest of the leaders of the Sinaloa Cartel, which triggered the increase in violence.²²

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