Regional Overview: Middle East | January 2024

Gaza: Conflict between Israel and Hamas enters fourth month as truce efforts fail

Fighting between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hamas and its allies intensified in central and southern Gaza. In central Gaza, fighting extended to Dayr al-Balah city, as well as other key locations, including al-Maghazi and al-Burayj, with the IDF destroying a strategic tunnel situated beneath Salah al-Din Street linking the northern Gaza Strip with the southern region. In Khan Yunis — where Israel believes Hamas senior leaders are hiding in tunnels along with Israeli captives¹ — the IDF advanced into the western areas of the city and encircled it. Intense clashes were reported near Khan Yunis refugee camp, Naser Hospital, al-Aqsa University, and al-Amal neighborhood west of the city.

In the north of the Gaza Strip, fighting and airstrikes subsided in early January after the IDF claimed clearing the area from Hamas and announced the withdrawal of thousands of its troops. However, IDF troops re-entered some areas within Gaza City and North Gaza later in the month to prevent Hamas from re-establishing a presence. Confrontations were reported between IDF forces and Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and other Palestinian factions in Jabaliya, Bayt Lahiya, and other areas inside Gaza City.

Hamas and Israel responded to a proposed deal negotiated by international mediators to establish a ceasefire and facilitate a hostage-for-prisoner swap. Hamas demanded a permanent ceasefire, while Israel reaffirmed its readiness to continue military operations until achieving “total victory” against Hamas.² The United States Secretary of State Anthony Blinken continues his shuttle diplomacy across the region and is expected to arrive in Tel Aviv in February to move talks forward. The talks come as Israel looks to move into Rafah, where an estimated 1.4 million Palestinians are sheltering.

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Iran: Deadly militant attacks trigger IRGC strikes across the region

On 3 January, two suicide bombings by Islamic State (IS) militants in the southeastern city of Kerman killed at least 93 civilians during a commemoration ceremony for Qassem Suleimani. The slain Iranian general — who was killed in a US airstrike in Baghdad in 2019 — was instrumental in combating IS by coordinating and assisting Shiite and Kurdish forces in Iraq and Syria. The extremist Sunni armed group, which considers Iran a sectarian foe, has over the years carried out several attacks on Iranian soil, including an October 2022 attack at a shrine in Shiraz, a September 2018 attack at a military parade in Ahvaz, and twin attacks in Tehran in June 2017.

The attack in Kerman, which followed several attacks on Iranian security forces by Sunni Baluch separatist groups in Sistan and Baluchistan province in December 2023, prompted the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to launch missile and drone strikes against targets in Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan in mid-January, which Iranian officials claimed to be associated with “terrorist groups” and Israeli intelligence.³ The strikes in Pakistan, which targeted what the IRGC described as Jaysh al-Adl bases, led to Pakistani retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian soil targeting the claimed hideouts of Baluchistan Liberation Front and Baluchistan Liberation Army, armed separatist groups that have carried out numerous attacks inside Pakistan. Iran and Pakistan have largely cordial ties, but officials from both sides accuse each other of providing a safe haven to separatist groups.⁴

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Iraq, Syria, and Jordan: Shiite militias intensify attacks on US and Global Coalition forces

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq — a generic ‘brand’ believed to be used by different pro-Iran Shiite militants based in Iraq — and other pro-Iran militias continued their attacks on US and Global Coalition forces in Iraq and Syria. The number of drone and rocket attacks and attempted attacks in Iraq, targeting mainly the Harir and Ain Assad Air Bases in Erbil and Anbar provinces, nearly tripled in January compared to December. Likewise, rocket shelling and drone strikes on US and Global Coalition bases in Dayr al-Zawr, al-Hasaka, and Damascus provinces in Syria saw a significant increase, with a total of 50 attacks and attempted attacks recorded throughout January compared to only 36 the previous month.

In a serious escalation, a suicide drone strike on a military desert outpost on the border between Jordan and Syria killed three US troops on 29 January. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for the attack. Following the US announcement that it will conduct a multi-tier response against Iran-backed militias, reports suggested that Iraqi militias had relocated assets and key personnel,⁵ while Iran also pulled out senior commanders and mid-ranking IRGC forces from Syria.⁶ In an effort to de-escalate the situation, and likely under pressure from Tehran, Kataib Hizbullah — one of the most prominent members of the Islamic Resistance — announced on 30 January that it was suspending attacks on US interests.⁷ On 2 February, the US began launching airstrikes on dozens of targets belonging to Iran-backed armed groups in Syria and Iraq.

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Lebanon: Top Hamas commander killed in Beirut

On 2 January, Salih al-Aruri — the deputy chief of Hamas’ political bureau and one of the founders of its armed wing — was killed in a drone strike in Beirut’s southern neighborhood of Dahiyeh along with six other Hamas militants. Israel, which carried out several targeted killings on foreign soil but refrains from commenting on cross-border operations, is widely believed to be behind the attack.⁸ In retaliation, Hezbollah announced that it fired 62 rockets at an Israeli air surveillance base on Mount Meron, in northern Israel, while Israel struck the outskirts of Kouthariye al-Siyad village, about 40 kilometers inside the Lebanese border. Al-Aruri’s killing in the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahiyeh raised fears of even a more serious spillover of the Gaza conflict into Lebanon. But while daily cross-border exchanges of fire between the IDF and Hezbollah continued unabated in January, a more serious escalation has thus far not materialized.

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Syria: Hostilities between Israel and pro-Iran militias continue

In Syria, Israeli forces increased their airstrikes and shelling on IRGC, Hezbollah, regime, and pro-Iran militia positions across several provinces, though at a decreased rate, with a reported 13 shelling and airstrike events recorded in January compared to 37 in December 2023. On 20 January, Israeli forces shelled an IRGC-affiliated building in Damascus city, killing 13 fighters. Meanwhile, pro-Iran militias and Hezbollah launched four rocket attacks on the occupied Golan Heights, where rockets fell into uninhabited areas.

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Yemen: US and UK forces strike Houthi targets

Hostilities between the Houthis and the US and its allies steadily rose throughout January, continuing the trend that began unfolding last November. The US–UK alliance carried out several attacks against Houthi positions over two concentrated waves on 12 and 22 January. The US military command claims to have hit over 60 targets across Houthi-controlled Yemen, inflicting considerable damage to the Houthis’ military infrastructure.⁹ Strikes were conducted by fighter jets as well as missiles fired from surface ships and submarines. 

Although US officials assessed to have damaged or destroyed between 20% and 30% of the Houthis’ offensive capacities,¹⁰ Houthi strikes against international shipping continued throughout the month with a total of 21 attacks. On 15 January, Houthi forces announced the extension of their targets to US- and UK-affiliated ships while also expanding the area of attacks to the Gulf of Aden.¹¹ This announcement coincided with the transit of the Behshad Iranian spy ship to the area, which has been positioned in the Red Sea since July 2021.¹² Houthi forces say they have resorted to attacking international shipping to show support to Palestinians after their drone and missile attacks against Israel failed to affect the country.

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